Midterm campaign spending approaches $12 billion as fuel costs spike

Campaign spending for the upcoming United States midterm elections is projected to reach approximately $12 billion, setting a new historical high according to data from OpenSecrets. The research organization tracks financial flows in US politics and indicates that this cycle will surpass all previous records. The surge in funds comes at a time when voters face rising costs for basic necessities, creating tension between political expenditures and economic realities.

The total spending is divided between direct candidate funds and outside expenditures. Democratic candidates are expected to spend over $2.2 billion on their own campaigns, compared to $1.4 billion for Republican candidates. A larger share of the total comes from independent spending by corporations, unions, and other associations. This category of spending has grown rapidly since 2010, when the Supreme Court ruled that such groups could fund advertisements near elections as protected political speech.

Federal Election Commission data shows that outside spending has nearly tripled over the last decade. In 2016, these groups spent $4.12 billion, but the current cycle is estimated to reach $11.9 billion. Much of this money moves through independent expenditure-only political action committees, commonly known as super PACs, which do not limit the amount donors can contribute. The Senate Leadership Fund has spent $489 million for Republicans, while MAGA Inc has allocated $353 million to the same party.

On the Democratic side, the Senate Majority PAC and House Majority PAC have spent $248 million and $192 million respectively. Other major players include the America PAC, founded by Elon Musk, and the Democracy PAC, funded by George Soros. Musk has personally given $445 million to Republican efforts. Transparency remains a concern because money can pass through multiple organizations, often called shell PACs, before being spent. OpenSecrets reports that dark money, which is funding with untraceable sources, will exceed $1.5 billion in these elections, up from $1.35 billion in 2024.

New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani has criticized the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, for using millions in dark money to support pro-Israel candidates. Public records indicate that AIPAC channeled funds through the United Democracy Project super PAC. The group, which has over six million members, spent nearly $15 million on George Latimer’s 2024 primary challenge against Jamaal Bowman. It also allocated $5.24 million for Wesley Bell’s race against Cori Bush in Missouri and $20.7 million against Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan.

The heaviest financial activity is concentrated in competitive states such as Georgia, Texas, and Michigan. In Michigan, an estimated $333 million has been spent on the Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. Rogers raised about $23 million directly, while El-Sayed raised roughly $54 million. However, outside groups spent $169 million supporting Rogers and $94 million supporting El-Sayed, who has campaigned on reducing the influence of money in politics.

The scale of this spending contrasts with the current cost of living environment. Since the US-Israel war on Iran began in February, fuel prices have risen sharply. Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed diesel costs up by 65 percent and fertilizer prices by up to 40 percent. According to the Iran War Energy Cost Tracker, Americans have spent at least $150 billion on petrol and diesel since the conflict started, which is 30 percent more than previous estimates. The $12 billion spent on midterms equates to 8 percent of those fuel costs, or about $92 per household.