Lula Seizes Fourth Term After Reversing 2.2 Million Vote Deficit

Brazil has elected Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to a fourth presidential term, concluding a runoff that reversed his earlier deficit. With nearly 99% of ballots counted on Sunday, Lula secured 51.75% of the vote, while 45-year-old challenger Flávio Bolsonaro received 48.25%.

The 80-year-old incumbent, who turns 81 on Tuesday, trailed by 2.2 million votes after the first round in early October. He finished the second round ahead by 4.3 million votes. This outcome marks the first time since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s that a candidate who placed second in the initial round won the final contest.

Lula’s allies attributed the shift to higher voter participation. Abstention in the first round reached a record 21.08%, a figure that disproportionately affected Lula’s base, whose voters often live farther from polling stations. In the runoff, the abstention rate dropped to 19.21%.

Reginaldo Lopes, a key ally, described the result as Brazil sending a message to the world about the extreme right. He stated the country would now reorganize its democratic forces. Lula’s path to this office began in the late 1970s as a union leader in São Paulo. He lost bids in 1989, 1994, and 1998 before becoming Brazil’s first elected working-class president in 2002. He previously won the 2022 election against Jair Bolsonaro, the father of this year’s challenger.

The result presents a setback for the Bolsonaro family. Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup, lives under house arrest in Brasília. He had hoped his son’s victory would lead to his release and a role in government. His son watched the count from Brasília, where the confirmation of Lula’s win sparked anger and bewilderment.

The outcome also disrupts the plans of US President Donald Trump, the Bolsonaro family’s primary international ally. Trump had expected Brazil to join a group of pro-Trump leaders in Latin America, which includes Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia, Daniel Noboa in Ecuador, José Antonio Kast in Chile, and Javier Milei in Argentina.

Supporters demonstrated their support on Saturday with rallies on Rio’s Copacabana beach and Paulista Avenue in São Paulo. On Sunday evening, hundreds gathered on Paulista Avenue to watch the count, waving red flags bearing Lula’s face. Many in São Paulo remained angry over an alleged attempt by pro-Bolsonaro politicians to disrupt the vote by sabotaging public transport in areas that lean toward Lula.