Final poll puts Bolsonaro ahead of Lula by 1.3 points

A CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday places Flavio Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 45 percent in Brazil's presidential run-off. The survey indicates a gap of 1.3 percentage points, which falls within the poll's stated margin of error of 2.2 points. This result suggests the race is statistically tied with voters heading to the polls on Sunday.

The data marks a slight shift from the same pollster's findings one week earlier. At that time, Bolsonaro led by 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent. The current figures confirm that the contest remains nearly level as the campaign concludes. The election will determine whether Lula, the incumbent left-wing leader, secures a fourth non-consecutive term or if the country pivots further to the right.

Both candidates held large rallies on Saturday, the final day of campaigning. Lula, who is 80 years old, addressed crowds at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. Wearing a red hat and waving a national flag from a campaign truck, he highlighted his opponent's relationship with US President Donald Trump. "The people must choose either someone who kisses the national flag or someone who kisses the American flag," Lula said.

Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, campaigned in the state of Minas Gerais. Hundreds of motorcyclists wearing yellow national football shirts attended the event. Ebert Dorigo, a participant, told AFP that Lula's Workers' Party has fostered dependence on state welfare. "The values we uphold are nation and family," Dorigo said, arguing that the country needs a new direction to prioritize hard work.

The campaign has been defined by sharp divisions over economic policy and crime. Bolsonaro has pledged to build hundreds of thousands of new prison places and reduce government spending. His father, who served as president from 2019 to 2022, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup after his defeat in 2022.

Despite the intensity of the campaign, the candidates adopted a calmer tone during their final debate on Friday. They continued to exchange accusations regarding economic management and political records. Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, described the choice as difficult. "If there were any other candidate, that would be a better option. But we're stuck choosing between the worst, the horrible, and the lesser evil," Viana told AFP.

The first round of voting saw Bolsonaro take 47 percent of the vote, narrowly ahead of Lula's 45 percent. Recent surveys have consistently shown the two men within a narrow margin of each other. The Sunday vote will finalize the outcome of the closest presidential race in recent Brazilian history.