Third Iran war phase looms after vote
Analysts predict renewed U.S. and Israeli strikes on Gulf energy sites once midterm results are in, following a conflict that has already killed more than 7,000 in Iran.
By Kwame Silva ·
Ordinary households face higher energy costs as analysts project a new phase of the U.S.-Iran conflict beginning shortly after the November 3 midterm elections. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies, stated that a renewed war appears almost inevitable once ballots are counted.
Citrinowicz, who served for two decades in Israeli military intelligence, expects the third round of fighting to target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and submarine internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that Iranian officials are signaling preparation for these specific types of attacks.
The current conflict has already unfolded in two distinct phases over the past 18 months under President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The first phase began in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear facilities and ended in a 12-day ceasefire. A second phase started in February following a U.S. military buildup, featuring Israeli strikes on senior Iranian leadership including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Since the summer truce collapsed, direct strikes have paused, but economic pressure has intensified. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran targets commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the midterms by creating "fake hits, mines and everything else."
Iran’s diplomatic demands include sanctions relief, reparations, the release of frozen assets, and the right to retain enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have attempted to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that retaliation may come from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah, targeting economic sites such as airports.
The human cost of the conflict has grown steadily. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran, while Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. The conflict has also claimed 21 U.S. service members, mostly in Gulf base strikes, and more than 70 Israelis. Casualties have been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen.
Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that Trump lacks a clear goal and that military force alone will not force Iran to capitulate. He suggested diplomacy remains possible but has been narrowed by maximalist aims, requiring Iran to compromise under economic pressure with a clear diplomatic exit.
Netanyahu, facing a close election in the coming days, has spoken of "finishing the job" against the Iranian regime. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu form an emergency unity government. He cautioned that political calculation combined with an Iranian incident Netanyahu might inflate could produce an unnecessary attack.
The Pentagon is currently drafting a new battle plan, according to reports from The New York Times and other U.S. outlets. It remains unknown whether Trump will approve the document before the election concludes.
Citrinowicz previously warned that attacking the Islamic regime would not produce regime change but would draw the region into wider conflict. He maintained that view in a recent interview, stating that Trump has "only bad and worse options" in the Persian Gulf.
