Brazil Election: Factory Closures Shift Voter Loyalty

Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday for a presidential run-off, a contest shaped by a rapid change in how people earn their keep. In Osasco, a suburb of São Paulo once known for its heavy industry, closed factories have given way to shopping malls and delivery app offices. The city, now nicknamed São Paulo's Silicon Valley, voted for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022 but backed right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in this month's first round. Bolsonaro won the national first round, and every winner since 1989 has gone on to take the presidency.

The shift reflects a wider economic transformation. Gilberto Almazan, a metalworkers' union leader in Osasco, says the city has deindustrialized sharply. He notes that metal, chemical, and textile plants have vanished, replaced by five new malls. Almazan describes the old union movement as stuck in the Middle Ages. Many workers now drive cars, deliver food, or run small trades, a trend Almazan calls Uber-isation. These workers often prioritize flexible hours over the collective welfare that defined Lula's political base. Richard Lapper, a biographer of both candidates, argues that Brazil industrialized late and deindustrialized early, making the economic shock feel more severe.

Despite a record low in unemployment and Brazil's removal from the UN's Hunger Map under Lula, many voters feel squeezed by high prices and debt. Robson, a 53-year-old civil servant, cites heavy taxes and government mismanagement. Tairine, a hot dog seller who previously abstained, now supports Bolsonaro, citing a lack of change since Lula's return. Gisele Bonfim, a lawyer who voted for Lula in 2022, says she sees hope for change with Bolsonaro. The first round saw 33 million people abstain, the highest number since 1998.

Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed cutting government spending and ministries while retaining key welfare programs. He denies corruption accusations. Lula's campaign is mobilizing large street rallies, including one in São Paulo that drew about a million people. The 80-year-old president has also used social media to counter claims that he is aging out of relevance. In Maré, a favela in Rio, Lula still won despite higher-than-average abstention. Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother earning under £300 a month, praises his wage increases and free medicines. She worries about Bolsonaro's plan to designate the Comando Vermelho gang a terrorist organization, citing police raids in Rio last year that killed more than 130 people.

Evangelical churches are filling gaps left by the state, offering childcare and food. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is under investigation for allegedly obstructing the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro, says Flávio Bolsonaro shares church values on family and abortion. Malafaia calls the probe politically motivated. Almazan fears there will never be another Lula. The final vote may hinge on whether voters believe Lula can present a new narrative for a country that has moved past its industrial past.