Paxton Talarico Texas race tied at 49% as Trump returns to state
The president campaigns in West Texas one week before the vote, attempting to energize Republicans in a contest that has flipped back to even after a Democratic lead last month.
By Lina Lewis ·
A new Fox News poll places Ken Paxton and James Talarico at a 49% tie among likely voters in the Texas Senate race. The two candidates are competing to replace retiring Senator John Cornyn. This deadlock contrasts with a poll from last month, which showed Talarico holding a 51% to 49% lead over Paxton.
President Donald Trump travels to Corpus Christi on Tuesday morning before moving to Lubbock. He will hold a rally at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center alongside Paxton. This is the president's fourth trip to the state since Labor Day. He previously attended the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, visited a truck plant in Denton on October 1, and held a rally in San Antonio six days later.
The visit occurs one week before Election Day, with early voting already open. Trump won Texas by nearly 14 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election. The current Senate contest is one of roughly a dozen races that will determine if the GOP maintains its Senate majority. Talarico is scheduled to campaign at Texas Tech University on Tuesday evening, the same day as Trump's appearance.
The candidates are making different appeals to voters. Paxton has linked Talarico to the national Democratic Party and cited past comments by the Democrat. Talarico has focused on voter dissatisfaction with the economy. The latest polling indicates Democrats have an enthusiasm edge, with 69% of likely voters expressing extreme interest in the election compared to 61% of Republicans.
Paxton faces internal party resistance, with 90% of Republicans supporting him versus 98% of Democrats backing Talarico. The state attorney general has navigated legal issues, including a 2023 impeachment vote by the Texas House. He was acquitted by the state Senate. He is also in the middle of a divorce filed last year, with his wife citing biblical grounds for the separation.
Hispanic likely voters favor Talarico 64% to 34%, a shift from 2024 when they supported Trump by one point. Financial concerns also influence the race. Forty-three percent of voters say they are financially worse off than two years ago, while 20% say they are better off. Those who report being worse off lean toward Talarico, while those who are better off or unchanged favor Paxton.
