Texas Senate Race: $500 Million Spent as Talarico Leads Polls
Democratic challenger James Talarico holds a slight edge over Attorney General Ken Paxton in a contest that has become the costliest in U.S. history.
By Sakura Novak ·
The race for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas has become the most expensive election in American history, with more than $500 billion invested in the campaigns for Republican candidate Ken Paxton and Democratic candidate James Talarico.
The contest pits Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton against state representative James Talarico. Talarico currently leads in most recent opinion polls, a shift that has drawn national attention to whether the state's long-standing Republican dominance is weakening. The margin of victory varies depending on the specific polling firm and methodology, but the trend toward the Democrat has been consistent since the summer months.
A primary driver of the high spending was the financial backing Paxton received from Elon Musk, the world's wealthiest individual. Musk increased his support for the Attorney General after early post-summer data indicated a growing advantage for Talarico.
Voter turnout in the state has reached record levels for a midterm election. According to the Texas Secretary of State, more than 7.7 million residents cast ballots in early voting. That figure represents 40.5% of the 19 million eligible voters in the state.
The election outcome will determine the partisan control of the U.S. Senate for the next several years, including the final two years of the current presidential term. For Democrats, a win would end a 38-year drought in the state's Senate races. The last Democrat to hold the seat was Lloyd Bentsen, who won reelection in 1988 with more than 3.1 million votes against Republican Beau Boulter's approximately 2.1 million.
Republicans have controlled the Texas Senate seat continuously since 1988. John Cornyn, who served in the role for 24 years starting in 2002, lost the recent primary to Paxton. Trump endorsed Paxton in that primary contest. A Paxton victory would extend the Republican hold on the office, while a Talarico victory would mark the first change in party control since the late 1980s.
The election is also being watched for its implications regarding the Latino voting community, particularly in border regions. These areas supported President Trump heavily in 2024. Analysts are examining how the administration's strict immigration policies have influenced voter behavior in this demographic during the current midterm cycle.
