Serbia Votes as Student List Targets 40 Percent in Tight Race

Serbian voters head to the polls on Sunday to choose a new parliament in an election that political scientists describe as the most competitive in the 14 years since the Serbian Progressive Party came to power. The vote follows nearly two years of protests led by a student movement that has challenged the ruling government over corruption and institutional failure. On Thursday evening, thousands of supporters gathered in Belgrade for the Student List's final campaign rally. Many attendees had walked for days from various regions of the country to reach the capital, turning the event into a display of solidarity. The gathering concluded with a traditional circle dance known as a kolo.

Arsa Stojanovic, a biology student who participated in the walk, told the crowd that the group had crossed the country from end to end and visited numerous villages and neighborhoods. He stated that the experience taught them they could rely on the people. Aleksandar Cupic, a professor of transport and traffic engineering and a candidate for the Student List, described the atmosphere by saying it "smells like freedom." The Student List emerged after a concrete canopy collapsed at the Novi Sad railway station in November 2024, killing 16 people. The movement has framed the election as a chance to demand accountability for that disaster and to move beyond traditional ideological divisions.

Dusan Spasojevic, a political scientist, noted that these are the first elections since Aleksandar Vucic took power in 2012 with an uncertain outcome. He indicated that current polls suggest the Student List could secure more than 40 percent of the vote. In contrast, the Serbian Progressive Party held its own closing rally a few kilometers away. The party's campaign message emphasized stability, continuity, and prosperity, warning that a change in government risks chaos. Former President Vucic addressed supporters, claiming that opponents had tried to destroy the country on foreign orders and had attacked the party with billions of euros. The party portrayed the election as a fight for Serbia's sovereignty and accused opponents of serving foreign interests.

The campaign was marked by a high number of recorded incidents. The independent monitoring group CRTA documented 116 instances of physical violence or verbal threats by the final week of the campaign. These incidents included physical confrontations, attacks on campaigners, and attempts to seize campaign banners. CRTA also reported that opposition activists, particularly those linked to the Student List, faced surveillance and police questioning. The group stated that police were sometimes slow to protect opposition candidates and their supporters. In a report shared with Deutsche Welle, CRTA argued that the campaign was neither free nor fair, citing a narrowing of freedoms and deepening inequality.

CRTA's analysis found that nearly three-quarters of the airtime on national television was allocated to government representatives. More than 80 percent of the coverage regarding the Student List was negative. The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network published testimony from a former party member describing pressure on public-sector employees to secure votes. Anonymous sources told Deutsche Welle that voters were offered between €30 and €150, and in some cases family holiday packages, to support the Serbian Progressive Party. Independent media also reported on alleged links between party-connected individuals and criminal networks, though Spasojevic doubted these reports would alter the election result.

Authorities have warned for weeks that the students, allegedly aided by foreign intelligence services, are preparing for street violence. Several individuals have been arrested on suspicion of plotting disturbances for election night. Spasojevic stated that a decisive victory for either side would be the best outcome, but polls indicate a narrow margin that could lead to a post-election crisis. He added that a narrow victory for the Serbian Progressive Party would almost certainly be contested, and the student movement has vowed to defend every vote. An EU Commission spokesperson told Deutsche Welle that key recommendations for improving Serbia's electoral framework remain unimplemented. The spokesperson stressed that democracy and the rule of law are central to the accession process, noting that Serbia has been an EU candidate country since 2012.