Serbia's New Leaders Face Costly Institutional Overhaul Before Diplomatic Shifts

Serbia has completed a political transition that ends fourteen years of dominance by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). The opposition Student List secured a historic victory in Sunday’s election, forcing the exit of long-time leader Aleksandar Vucic. This change triggers an immediate review of the country’s external engagements, though analysts suggest the most pressing costs are internal.

International observers are monitoring the shift closely, particularly regarding Serbia’s stance toward the European Union, Russia, and regional neighbors. While a rapid pivot toward the West is a common expectation after an authoritarian regime falls, specialists in Belgrade argue that the transition will be measured. The new administration must first stabilize domestic institutions before altering its diplomatic posture.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that questions about neighborly relations will not be immediate agenda items. He explained that the new authorities must address a system that has captured democratic institutions. Specific sectors requiring repair include the judiciary, the prosecution service, the police, and the media sector. Popov described the priority as "tidying up at home" before "solving problems with the neighbours."

Relations with Croatia have been marked by frequent sharp words and public hostility. Popov noted that while these ties are not frozen, they do not reflect the ideal state between neighbors. Tensions escalated recently when Vucic accused Zagreb of organizing a "colour revolution" during mass protests in Serbia. However, Popov observed a quiet convergence on Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Belgrade supports Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik and Zagreb favors a third entity.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted that foreign policy will undergo the least transformation among Serbian public policies. He noted that many international and domestic structures shaping this policy will remain in place. Russia will experience a blow to its influence, particularly as the uncritical glorification of Moscow in Vucic-controlled media ends. Intelligence cooperation is expected to be downgraded, but Vuksanovic does not anticipate an overnight hawkish stance.

Serbian economic interests will continue to guide relations with Moscow. Vuksanovic pointed to the need for preferential gas prices and the unresolved status of the Kosovo dispute as key factors. Parts of the public remain disillusioned with the West, which complicates a rapid alignment shift. The new government is unlikely to join EU sanctions against Russia immediately. Regarding Ukraine, Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and the Donbas, though the future of ammunition deliveries remains uncertain.

Ties with Israel present another area of review. Under Vucic, Serbia established a strong partnership with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, characterized by arms trade and technology exchanges. Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, said the new government has no reason to abandon cooperation with Israel. However, it will re-examine newly concluded contracts, specifically those concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia.

The political landscape in Jerusalem will influence these decisions. Jaksic noted that Netanyahu’s government has lost another authoritarian, nationalist ally in Europe following Viktor Orban’s removal in Hungary earlier this year. He added that how Israel positions itself toward the new authorities in Belgrade depends largely on the outcome of Israel’s own elections. The new Serbian leadership intends to re-evaluate the policy of "sitting on multiple chairs," a strategy that brought more harm than good. This review is expected to lead to strengthened ties with the EU.