Lunar Logistics: NASA Reveals New Starship Launch Count
A former astronaut has indicated that supporting a crewed lunar landing will likely require approximately twenty-two Starship flights to establish fuel depots in orbit.
By Lina Lewis ·
NASA has finally shed light on a figure it has long treated with near-classified secrecy: the number of rocket launches required to support a crewed mission to the Moon. The latest estimate, shared during a recent safety review, suggests that 22 Starship flights will be necessary to assemble the fuel depot in low-Earth orbit needed to send a lander to the lunar surface and bring it back to orbit.
For years, this specific metric has been a guarded number within the Artemis Program. Agency officials have historically been reluctant to commit to a precise count, often citing the fluid nature of the engineering requirements. This hesitation has created a sense of uncertainty about how many times SpaceX’s Starship vehicle needs to fly before astronauts can actually leave Earth for the Moon.
The history of this estimate shows a pattern of shifting targets. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, who was then the director of the Human Landing System, acknowledged that while the agency had a general idea, she was hesitant to provide an exact number. She later described the requirement as being in the "high single digits to the low double digits," a range that implied roughly a dozen launches were needed.
That earlier estimate of around 12 launches meant SpaceX would have to fly one "depot" Starship followed by 11 "tanker" Starships. The goal was to fill the depot with liquid oxygen and methane, the propellants required for the lunar voyage. Some other officials have even suggested the number could be in the "high teens," reflecting the complexity of the in-orbit refueling process.
The hope has always rested on SpaceX significantly improving the lift capacity of the Starship rocket. If the vehicle could carry more propellant per flight, the total number of tanker missions would drop. However, concerns have grown among some NASA officials that these dramatic improvements may not arrive soon enough to play a meaningful role in the Artemis timeline for this decade.
The new perspective emerged on Thursday during the quarterly meeting of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel. Charlie Precourt, a panel member and former NASA astronaut, discussed the risks associated with the program. His comments helped clarify the current operational reality facing the agency as it plans for the return of humans to the lunar surface.
This update is significant because it moves the conversation from vague ranges to a more concrete operational target. While 22 launches remains a substantial logistical undertaking, having a defined number allows for better planning of the infrastructure and safety protocols required for in-space operations.
As the program moves forward, the focus shifts to whether the pace of Starship development can match this requirement. The next steps will involve validating the refueling operations in orbit and ensuring that the cadence of launches is sustainable. The agency is now working with these updated parameters to refine the schedule for the upcoming Artemis missions.
