Record European Heat Kills 50,391, With Climate Change Driving Two-Thirds of Toll

A new study estimates that extreme heat across Europe this summer contributed to the deaths of 50,391 people. The research, conducted by scientists at Imperial College London, attributes 32,619 of those deaths directly to human-caused climate change.

The findings indicate that burning coal, oil, and gas added sufficient heat to the environment to drive nearly two-thirds of the total mortality. This year’s toll is 71 percent higher than the 29,480 deaths recorded during the previous deadliest summer in 2022. The authors note that the current figures likely represent an underestimate because they exclude a deadly heat wave in May and cover only 854 cities, which hold approximately 40 percent of Europe's population.

Italy, France, Spain, and Germany recorded the highest death tolls. Co-author Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a biostatistician at Imperial College London, stated that about one-third of the deaths occurred between June 17 and July 1, when temperatures ran 5.3 C above normal. While more than half of the victims were aged 85 or older, the heat also killed more than 800 people in the 20 to 44 age bracket.

Lead author Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, noted that some cities experienced temperatures 12 C above normal this summer. She explained that infrastructure in much of Western and Northern Europe is not designed to cope with current temperatures. Barnes added that Europe is the fastest-warming continent and is now 2.5 C hotter than in pre-industrial times. This extra warming can tip temperatures "from uncomfortable to dangerous and potentially deadly."

To separate natural heat from climate-driven heat, the team ran computer simulations of a world without climate change and compared the results with this summer's actual deaths. Barnes said the share of heat deaths attributable to warming has risen from about 45 percent in the early 2000s to 65 percent now. Because heat deaths are often underreported, the researchers used statistical modelling that accounts for age and each city's optimal temperature. They verified the model against government estimates, which mostly matched. For the May and June heat waves in Britain, the model produced 2,700 excess deaths, while the United Kingdom's health statistics agency reported 2,800.

Dr. Howard Frumkin, former director of the National Center for Environmental Health in the U.S., observed that summers are getting hotter while the tools for attributing deaths to heat are becoming more accurate. Dr. Courtney Howard, president-elect of the Canadian Medical Association, called for investment in early-warning systems and equitable access to low-carbon cooling. Dr. Jonathan Patz of the University of Wisconsin-Madison stressed the need to address fossil fuel burning, noting that society cannot keep "mopping up the mess on the floor without thinking about turning the faucet off."