Knesset math: Palestinian bloc holds 12 to 15 seats as both major camps fall short

Polls indicate that the Israeli parliamentary election scheduled for next week will result in a legislative deadlock. Projections show Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition losing its majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The Jewish Israeli opposition bloc is also expected to fall short of the 61 seats required to form a government. Palestinian citizens of Israel, who comprise approximately 20% of the population, are projected to secure between 12 and 15 seats. These seats are split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, an alliance of three smaller parties including Ta'al.

The current political landscape leaves the balance of power in the hands of these Arab-led parties. Ahmad Tibi, who heads Ta'al and has served in the Knesset for more than 20 years, stated that high turnout among the Arab community is a critical tool for removing the current government. "We are determined to do everything in order to bring this government down," Tibi said. He emphasized that the opposition relies on Arab votes to break the impasse.

Political dynamics have shifted regarding potential alliances. Most of the Jewish Israeli opposition has previously ruled out coalitions with Arab politicians. Netanyahu and his allies have campaigned to make such alliances politically toxic, using slogans like "Bibi or Tibi." However, promises to avoid Palestinian parties have been broken in the past. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a historic coalition with Naftali Bennett, who is now part of the opposition bloc. Netanyahu also initiated coalition talks with Abbas earlier in his tenure.

Voters in Kfar Qasim are weighing their options against a backdrop of recent history. The town marks the anniversary of the 1956 massacre two days after the election. In that incident, border police killed 49 residents who had broken a curfew they were unaware of. Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group noted that a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to accelerate policies of ethnic cleansing and annexation. He described the vote as a choice between mitigation and worsening conditions.

Distrust of the political system has historically depressed turnout among Palestinian citizens. Last month, Israel’s supreme court effectively forced Balad party leader Sami Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article regarding the 7 October Hamas-led attacks. The ruling drew criticism for applying different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. Conversely, a motion to disqualify National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir over racist language was not upheld. Some citizens, such as Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeedat, abstain on principle to avoid legitimizing a system they view as biased.

The decision to vote is driven by fear of a return to far-right governance. Abu Shehadeh said the primary motivation for voters is the danger posed if the current coalition returns to power. He described the choice as being between "bad and worse," contrasting Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Ben-Gvir with the opposition. Despite the lack of a two-state solution in opposition party platforms and strong support for the settlement movement, many voters see a difference between a right-wing and a far-right government.

The election is set to take place next week. The outcome will determine whether the opposition can assemble a majority by partnering with either Ra'am or the Joint List. If neither party can secure the necessary seats, the political stalemate may persist. The final seat counts will dictate the next steps in the government formation process.