70,000 Returnees Arrive to Cast Votes in Tuesday Knesset Election

Approximately 70,000 Israelis living abroad have returned to Israel or are scheduled to arrive before the Tuesday Knesset election. This estimated figure could influence the final outcome if the contest between political blocs remains tight.

The potential impact depends on the vote threshold required to secure a seat. In 2022, a party needed roughly 36,000 votes to win a single Knesset seat. Analysts expect this number to rise to between 38,000 and 39,000 votes in the current election due to population growth and higher projected turnout.

Polling data does not yet identify which parties these returnees will support. Estimates suggest a preference for the change bloc, but no reliable metric exists for their specific political leanings. Even if 60% of the returnees vote for that bloc, the gain would amount to at most one to one and a half seats. The final results will determine whether these voters tipped the balance.

The influx of visitors has already affected the hospitality sector. Africa Israel Hotels reported a 23% increase in occupancy during election week compared to October of last year. Alex Eliyahu, the chain's marketing director, noted that more Israelis are combining their civic duty with short vacations. Fattal Hotels also saw higher bookings, particularly in central Israel. Maya Shalev, the company's vice president of marketing and sales, attributed the rise to the elections and offered discounts of up to 30% for stays from October 25 to 29.

Many returnees are staying with relatives or in vacant apartments they own, but some have booked rooms. Judy, a resident of Miami for over 50 years, flew in to vote and plans to return to the US in early November. She stated that while many Israelis in Miami and Los Angeles vote for the Right, she and others differ. Ofer, who arrived from New York, said his family flew in specifically to vote and will leave the day after the election.

Nurit, from the South Sharon area, attended a recent rally in Tel Aviv with her son-in-law and grandson, who traveled from Canada. Her grandson, who is 18, is casting his first ballot. Zehava, also from New York, planned her trip in advance and intends to vote for Likud. These individual accounts reflect the broader trend of diaspora citizens prioritizing their participation in the vote.

Travel disruptions affected some potential voters. Flydubai canceled flights following an attempted terrorist attack, stranding some Israelis abroad. One young man reported that the cancellations increased flight prices to the Far East. Conversely, some residents of Israel will be overseas on Election Day. Racheli, from Ramat Gan, booked a vacation in Vietnam with her husband nearly a year ago. She said it would be the first time she did not vote, adding that it is a shame Israelis traveling abroad cannot cast ballots on Election Day.