Rays Hold 14.6% Chance of World Series Title After Game 4 Win

Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash faces a difficult bullpen management challenge following a 4-3 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers in 12 innings on Tuesday. The win prevented a World Series sweep and reduced Milwaukee's series lead to 3-1. Cash used seven pitchers in Game 4, including Nick Martinez, who was originally scheduled to start Game 5. Martinez threw two scoreless innings and 33 pitches out of the bullpen. This depletion of arms creates uncertainty for Wednesday's matchup, which will also be an elimination game for Tampa Bay.

The Rays now hold a 14.6% probability of winning the series according to historical data. In Major League Baseball postseason history, 96 teams have faced a 3-1 deficit in a best-of-seven series, and 14 have won the championship from that position. When Tampa Bay was down 3-0, their odds were calculated at 2.4%. Only one team in history, the 2004 Boston Red Sox, has overcome a 3-0 hole to win the World Series. The statistical record for teams down 3-1 in Game 5 is .500.

Cash must decide which pitchers are available for Wednesday. Griffin Jax started Tuesday's game and threw 74 pitches, making him unlikely to pitch again. Relievers Cole Sulser, Steven Matz, and Garrett Cleavinger did not pitch on Tuesday and are likely candidates for Game 5. Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly also have rest days between appearances. Ian Seymour threw 32 pitches on Tuesday, which may limit his availability. Tyler Wells and Cameron Booser have pitched in consecutive games, though they could be called upon. Drew Rasmussen is on three days of rest after starting Game 2, though he has never made a short-rest start in his career.

Milwaukee will send Jacob Misiorowski to the mound for the fourth start of these playoffs. The 24-year-old right-hander is the favorite for the National League Cy Young Award. In Game 1, he threw five innings and allowed one run. He threw harder in that start compared to his previous outings, but he had 11 days of rest before that appearance. He will pitch on his standard four days of rest on Wednesday. The Brewers hope for length from Misiorowski after their bullpen worked heavily in the previous game.

Rays center fielder Junior Caminero exited Game 4 in the 12th inning due to a left foot injury. He left the field shortly after Joey Ortiz threw the ball into the outfield. Cash said after the game that Caminero would play on Wednesday on one leg. Caminero has a .717 on-base plus slugging percentage in this postseason but has hit only one home run in 48 at-bats. He hit 42 home runs during the regular season, averaging one every 14.7 at-bats. The Rays need power from the 23-year-old to extend the series.

The series moves to Milwaukee for Game 5 on Wednesday. Tampa Bay must win to force a Game 6. The Brewers lead 3-1 and need one more win to claim their first World Series title since 1982.